Canada’s population is predicted to grow dramatically over the next 50 years, primarily driven by immigration. According to new projections from Statistics Canada (StatsCan), the country’s population could increase by 57%, reaching 62.8 million by 2073, up from 40.1 million in 2023.

Projected Population Growth in Canada

StatsCan’s forecast is based on a “medium-growth” scenario, which estimates an average annual population growth rate of approximately 0.9%. The agency also presented a range of projections, with a low-growth scenario predicting a population of 47.1 million and a high-growth scenario estimating up to 87.2 million. The corresponding average annual growth rates for these scenarios would be between 0.3% and 1.6%.

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Immigration as the Main Driver of Population Growth

As per the medium-growth scenario, Canada’s natural population growth (births minus deaths) is expected to turn negative by 2036, making immigration the primary driver of population increases in the coming decades.

Policy Changes in Temporary Foreign Worker Numbers

Despite this anticipated reliance on immigration, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced plans to reduce the number of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) entering Canada by about 20% over the next three years. This move is seen as a response to housing shortages and other economic pressures.

Economic and Policy Adjustments

Sean Fraser, Canada’s former Minister of Housing and Immigration, supported the decision to cut TFW numbers, noting that the demand for temporary foreign workers surged post-COVID due to acute labor shortages. However, Fraser emphasized that as the economic situation changes, so must the policy landscape.

“The landscape has changed. We don’t see that acute labor shortage that existed even two years ago. As the economic landscape changes, so too must the policy landscape,” Fraser explained.

Focus on High Unemployment Areas

Under the new policy, employers in areas where Canada’s population is predicted to grow and with high unemployment rates (6% or higher) will face restrictions on hiring low-wage TFWs, except in sectors critical to food security, such as agriculture and fish processing.

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Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan

Despite these changes, Canada’s population is predicted to grow significantly as the country remains committed to its broader immigration goals. The current immigration levels plan aims to admit approximately 485,000 permanent residents (PRs) in 2024, with targets increasing to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

“We’re making sure that the entire package makes as much sense as possible for the needs of Canadians and for the needs of our economy,” Trudeau stated. “We’ll be looking at unemployment rates and opportunities to make further adjustments over the course of this fall as we come forward with comprehensive level plans that will respond to the reality that Canada’s facing now and in years and decades to come.”

Canada’s evolving immigration strategy underscores the importance of balancing population growth with economic needs, ensuring a sustainable future for all Canadians.