Carney immigration policy: every change, tracked and dated

Carney immigration policy at a glance: the numbers that changed

Mark Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister on 14 March 2025 and his government was returned with a minority in the general election of 28 April 2025. The Honourable Lena Metlege Diab has been Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship since 13 May 2025, which matters because several older guides still name her predecessor. Almost everything that has changed since is traceable to two documents and two statutes: Budget 2025 with the levels plan it carried, the 2026 international student cap notice, Bill C-12 on borders and asylum, and Bill C-3 on citizenship by descent.

Timeline: every Carney immigration change, newest first

Each entry below carries the date the measure was announced or came into force. Where a measure was announced on one date and took effect on another, both are given, because the difference is exactly what trips people up when they read a headline and assume the rule already applies to them.

2026

• 3 September 2026. Express Entry round 440 invited 229 candidates in the Physicians with Canadian Work Experience category at a CRS cut-off of 198, the lowest of the year. The pool stood at 226,673 candidates as of 30 August 2026, of whom only 559 scored above 600.
• 18 August 2026. IRCC open data showed 155,800 permanent residents admitted in the main categories between 1 January and 30 June 2026, plus 26,300 through two one-time initiatives, 182,100 in total. Half of the 380,000 annual target would be 190,000, so the main categories were running behind pace at the mid-year point.
• 17 July 2026. ESDC reset the provincial wage thresholds that split high-wage from low-wage LMIA applications. Alberta moved to $37.50 an hour from $36.00, British Columbia to $38.40 and Ontario to $36.92. An LMIA is assessed against the threshold in force on the day ESDC receives it.
• 15 July 2026. IRCC paused new intake to the Parents and Grandparents Program. No new interest to sponsor forms are accepted and no invitations are issued until further notice, though existing applications continue to be processed toward the 15,000 admissions the levels plan sets for 2026 (source: canada.ca notice).
• 25 June 2026. The Minister signed a replacement public policy for graduates of the Francophone Minority Communities Student Pilot, adding an open work permit option alongside the permanent residence pathway. IRCC states the permanent residence stream opens for applications in winter 2027, which places it in the proposed column below rather than the in-force one.
• 25 June 2026. Ontario consolidated its nominee streams, a provincial decision rather than a federal one, but a direct consequence of provinces rationing a nomination allocation against demand built up during the 2025 cut.
• 1 April 2026. New program requirements for low-wage LMIA positions took effect, including a requirement to advertise the role for at least eight consecutive weeks within the three months before applying. Eligible employers outside census metropolitan areas can access a fifteen percent cap on low-wage temporary foreign workers rather than the standard ten percent, a measure set to run to 31 March 2027.
• 26 March 2026.Bill C-12, the Strengthening Canada's Immigration System and Borders Act, received royal assent after Senate third reading on 12 March. It is the single largest legislative change of this government's immigration record and is covered in full below (source: canada.ca).
• 18 February 2026. The Minister announced the 2026 Express Entry categories. Five were added: physicians with Canadian work experience, researchers, senior managers, transport occupations and skilled military recruits. Agriculture and agri-food was retired. The qualifying experience threshold for renewed occupational categories rose from six months to twelve (source: canada.ca).
• 1 January 2026.Students starting a master's or doctoral programme at a public university became exempt from the provincial attestation letter requirement, the first meaningful loosening of the student cap machinery since it was built.
• 2026 allocations notice. IRCC set the international student cap at up to 408,000 study permits processed for the year, of which 155,000 are for newly arriving students and the remainder are extensions for students already here, down from 437,000 in 2025 (source: canada.ca).

2025

• 15 December 2025. Bill C-3, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2025), came into force after receiving royal assent on 20 November 2025, ending the first-generation limit on citizenship by descent (source: canada.ca).
• 4 November 2025. Budget 2025 was tabled and carried the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan with it, the first levels plan written entirely by this government. It also committed to moving up to 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residence over 2026 and 2027 (source: supplementary information).
• October 2025. The parents and grandparents round for the year closed, having drawn only from the interest-to-sponsor pool collected in 2020. No new pool was opened, which is the context for the pause announced nine months later.
• June 2025. Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act, was introduced. It did not proceed in its original form. The provisions on lawful access to data drew sustained objection and were separated out, and the immigration and asylum measures were carried forward in Bill C-12.
• 13 May 2025. Lena Metlege Diab was appointed Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship in the post-election cabinet, succeeding Rachel Bendayan.
• 28 April 2025. General election. The Liberals were returned with a minority government, which is why every measure since has needed support beyond the governing benches to become law.
• 25 March 2025. IRCC removed arranged-employment points from the Comprehensive Ranking System. A qualifying job offer had been worth 50 points, or 200 for senior management roles. It is now worth nothing to the score. This was announced under the previous ministry and implemented eleven days after the change of Prime Minister, which is why it is contested territory in partisan coverage.
• 14 March 2025.Mark Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister. Every measure above this line belongs to the current government's record; measures below it, including the 2025 levels plan that cut the Provincial Nominee Program to 55,000, do not.

Permanent residence: what the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan actually sets

The plan tabled with Budget 2025 holds permanent admissions at 380,000 for each of 2026, 2027 and 2028, with a planning range of 350,000 to 420,000. Economic programmes take roughly 63 to 64 percent of that: 239,800 in 2026 rising to 244,700 in the two following years. Within the economic block, Federal High Skilled, which is the Express Entry line, is set at 109,000 in 2026 and 111,000 thereafter, while the Provincial Nominee Program is 91,500 in 2026 and 92,500 thereafter. Family class is 84,000 in 2026, made up of 69,000 spouses, partners and children and 15,000 parents and grandparents, easing to 81,000 in the two later years. Refugees and protected persons hold at 49,300. French-speaking admissions outside Quebec rise from 9 percent in 2026 to 9.5 percent in 2027 and 10.5 percent in 2028.

Two features of the plan get lost in the coverage. The first is that a target counts people who land in a given year, including dependants, many of whom applied a year or two earlier, so a target is not an invitation quota and it does not close a programme when it is reached. The second is that the plan is already being missed on the downside rather than the upside: the mid-year data released on 18 August 2026 showed the main categories running about 34,200 admissions behind the pace needed to reach 380,000. Our full line-by-line breakdown of every category sits on the Immigration Levels Plan guide.

Temporary residents: the study permit, PGWP and Temporary Foreign Worker cuts

This is where the policy is genuinely restrictive. New temporary resident arrivals are planned at 385,000 in 2026, split 170,000 International Mobility Program, 60,000 Temporary Foreign Worker Program and 155,000 students, falling to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028 as the TFWP line drops to 50,000. Against 673,650 new temporary residents admitted in 2025, that is a reduction of well over forty percent in a single year, and it is the mechanism behind the stated objective of bringing the temporary resident population below five percent of Canada's total by the end of 2027.

The cut is delivered through three separate levers rather than one. On students, the international student cap sets up to 408,000 study permits processed in 2026 against 437,000 in 2025, administered province by province through the provincial attestation letter. On work permits, the Temporary Foreign Worker Program carries a ten percent ceiling on low-wage workers at most work locations, a refusal to process low-wage applications in census metropolitan areas with unemployment at or above six percent, and the eight-week advertising requirement introduced on 1 April 2026. On wages, the 17 July 2026 threshold reset pushed the high-wage boundary up in every province, which quietly moved a large number of roles from the high-wage stream into the low-wage stream and therefore into the caps and refusals. In Alberta the threshold is now $37.50 an hour, which in Bow Valley hospitality is the difference between an LMIA being possible and not.

Post-graduation work permit rules have not been rewritten by this government, but they bite hardest now because the cohorts that arrived before the cap are graduating into them. The language requirement of CLB 7 for university graduates and CLB 5 for college graduates has applied since 1 November 2024, and the field-of-study requirement still applies to non-degree programmes, with graduates of college bachelor's degree programmes exempted in March 2025. The eligible field-of-study list changes, so it has to be checked on canada.ca for the date you apply rather than the date you enrolled.

Express Entry under Carney: category-based draws, CRS and the job-offer points change

Two structural changes define the current system. The first is the removal of arranged-employment points from the CRS on 25 March 2025: a job offer that was worth 50 points, or 200 for senior management, is now worth zero to the score. The second is the shift of almost all invitation volume into program-specific and category-based rounds. Across 2026 there has been no general all-program round at all. Every invitation has come through Canadian Experience Class, Provincial Nominee Program or a category.

The 2026 category list announced on 18 February 2026 keeps French-language proficiency, healthcare and social services, trades, education and STEM, retires agriculture and agri-food, and adds physicians with Canadian work experience, researchers, senior managers, transport occupations and skilled military recruits. It also raised the qualifying work experience for renewed occupational categories from six months to twelve, which is the change most likely to catch someone who built a plan around the old rule.

The pool data explains the pattern better than any commentary. As of 30 August 2026 there were 226,673 candidates in the Express Entry pool. Only 559 of them scored above 600, while 74,105 sat in the 451 to 500 band and 60,413 in the 401 to 450 band. That is a very large body of candidates clustered just below the Canadian Experience Class line, which is why a category or a nomination, rather than a few more CRS points, is usually what changes an outcome. The live rounds are tracked on our Express Entry draws page and the category rules on the category-based draws guide.

Family sponsorship: spousal targets and the parents and grandparents intake

Spousal, common-law and conjugal sponsorship rules have not changed under this government. The eligibility tests, the relationship evidence and the undertaking are what they were. What has changed is the planning capacity behind them: 69,000 admissions for spouses, partners and children in 2026, easing to 66,000 in 2027 and 2028. Because spousal sponsorship is demand-driven rather than rationed by invitation, that target is really a statement about processing resources, and it is consistent with IRCC's published 2026 timelines of roughly 27 months inland and 17 months outland. A falling target in 2027 is not a reason to expect those timelines to shorten by themselves.

The parents and grandparents picture is different and genuinely restrictive. IRCC paused new intake on 15 July 2026: no new interest to sponsor forms are accepted and no invitations are issued until further notice. Applications already in the queue continue to be processed against the 15,000 admissions the plan allows for 2026, and the department's stated reason is reducing processing times and improving predictability. The 2025 round had already drawn only from the interest pool collected in 2020, so for anyone who never submitted a form in 2020, there has been no route in for some time. The practical alternative while the pause lasts is the super visa, which is visitor status rather than permanent residence. Our Parents and Grandparents Program guide tracks the pause and the alternatives.

Borders and asylum legislation: what passed, what was amended, what did not proceed

Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act, was introduced in June 2025 and never became law in the form it was tabled. Its provisions on lawful access to data held by electronic service providers attracted sustained objection, and the package was split. The immigration and asylum measures were carried forward separately as Bill C-12, the Strengthening Canada's Immigration System and Borders Act, which passed Senate third reading on 12 March 2026 and received royal assent on 26 March 2026.

Four things became law. First, an asylum claim made more than one year after the claimant's first entry into Canada, where that entry occurred after 24 June 2020, is not referred to the Immigration and Refugee Board. Second, a claim from a person who entered between ports of entry along the Canada-United States land border and claimed more than 14 days later is likewise not referred. Both bars apply from 3 June 2025, which is earlier than royal assent and is the detail most commentary misses. Third, IRCC gained authority to share identity, status and document information with federal, provincial and territorial partners under written agreements. Fourth, and least discussed, the government took a power to cancel, suspend or vary groups of immigration documents and applications where it considers this in the public interest, a power that applies well beyond asylum.

A modernised asylum process was also announced, including simplified online claims, referral of only complete claims and decisions taken while the claimant is in Canada. That is being delivered through regulation over the following months rather than by the Act itself, so it belongs in the proposed column until each regulation is published.

Citizenship by descent: the first-generation limit and the bill that fixed it

Canadian citizenship passed automatically to a child born abroad to a Canadian parent, but only for the first generation born outside Canada. A Canadian who was themselves born abroad could not pass citizenship to their own child born abroad, which is the rule people describe as the second-generation cut-off and the reason the phrase Lost Canadians exists. Bill C-3, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2025), received royal assent on 20 November 2025 and came into force on 15 December 2025.

The Act does two distinct things. For people born before it came into force, it grants citizenship to those who would have been citizens but for the first-generation limit or older rules, which is a direct restoration rather than an application process. For children born or adopted abroad after that date, a Canadian parent who was themselves born abroad can pass citizenship on where they meet a substantial connection test, measured by physical presence in Canada in the order of 1,095 days before the birth. If you think you may already be a citizen, the application you make is for a citizenship certificate as proof, not for a grant. Our citizenship by descent guide works through the family scenarios in detail.

What Carney's policy means for Alberta and the provincial nominee programs

Alberta is a useful test of the whole policy because it sits at the intersection of every lever. The province's Alberta Advantage Immigration Program allocation for 2026 is 6,603 nominations, down from 9,750 in 2024, and as of late August 2026 roughly 4,560 had been issued with about 2,043 remaining. That allocation is divided across streams, with the Alberta Opportunity Stream holding the largest share at 3,562, then Rural Renewal at 1,057, Accelerated Tech and priority sector draws at 619 each, Dedicated Health Care at 518 and Tourism and Hospitality at 156.

The federal restoration of the Provincial Nominee Program to 91,500 for 2026 is the single most useful change in this whole record for anyone in Alberta, because a nomination is worth 600 CRS points and is the only realistic route for a candidate scoring in the 400s. But the allocation is finite and shrinking as the year runs, so competition firms up rather than eases in the second half. Layered on top, the 17 July 2026 wage threshold of $37.50 an hour in Alberta reclassified a swathe of hospitality and service roles into the low-wage stream, where the ten percent workforce cap and the regional refusal rules apply. For a Canmore or Banff employer, the practical result is that a role which supported an LMIA in early 2026 may not support one now at the same wage.

How does the Carney record compare with the Trudeau years?

The honest comparison is not a single number but four lines read together. Permanent admissions came down in two steps, one before this government and one after. Federal High Skilled was cut hard. The Provincial Nominee Program was halved and then largely restored. And the temporary side, which was barely planned at all before 2025, is now the tightest part of the system.

Read that table and the partisan framings on both sides look thin. The claim that this government opened the doors is hard to square with a temporary intake cut by more than forty percent in a year. The claim that it has slammed them shut is hard to square with a Provincial Nominee Program that grew by 36,500 places and five new Express Entry categories. What actually happened is a re-composition: fewer temporary arrivals, more selection from people already in Canada, and more of the permanent volume routed through provinces.

What this means for your application: five real scenarios

1. 01

   Express Entry candidate abroad with a score in the 450s

   You are in the largest band in the pool: 74,105 candidates sat between 451 and 500 on 30 August 2026. With no general rounds in 2026, points alone will not reach you. The levers that move a file like yours are a category occupation under the twelve-month rule, French at the level that opens the 382 to 420 band, or a provincial nomination. Score yourself honestly on the CRS calculator before spending money on a second language test.

2. 02

   PGWP holder in Canada with a permit expiring next year

   The system is now built for you: Canadian Experience Class rounds ran all year at 509 to 523, and the plan commits to moving up to 33,000 permit holders to permanent residence over 2026 and 2027. The risk is status, not selection. Map your twelve months of skilled experience, submit provincial expressions of interest in parallel, and know your bridging options before the permit is inside 120 days of expiry.

3. 03

   Employer who needs an LMIA for a role that used to qualify

   Re-price the role against the threshold in force on the day ESDC receives the application, not last year's figure. In Alberta that is $37.50 an hour. Below it you are in the low-wage stream, subject to the ten percent workforce cap, the eight-week advertising requirement from 1 April 2026 and refusal to process in higher-unemployment metro areas. Rural employers may qualify for the fifteen percent cap. Read the TFWP rules before you write the job posting.

4. 04

   Spouse being sponsored, or waiting on a filed application

   Nothing in the 2025 or 2026 record changes your eligibility or your evidence burden. The target of 69,000 and the published times of roughly 27 months inland and 17 months outland are the realistic planning assumptions. Waiting for a policy change is not a strategy, and the 2027 target is lower rather than higher. File a complete application, keep status current, and keep relationship evidence accumulating while you wait.

5. 05

   Canadian hoping to sponsor a parent or grandparent

   There is no intake to enter. The pause of 15 July 2026 stops both new interest to sponsor forms and new invitations, with no end date announced. If you were invited before the pause, your application continues to be processed. If you were not, the super visa is the only route that is open now, and it is visitor status with no permanent residence attached. Watch the levels plan due by 1 November 2026 for any change to the 15,000 line.

Announced versus proposed: what is in force and what is still an intention

This is the distinction that partisan pages on both sides blur, and it is the single most useful thing to hold on to. A regulation in force binds an officer deciding your file today. A budget commitment, a mandate line or a ministerial statement does not.

Where these figures come from, and how this page is kept current

Every number on this page comes from a primary source, and the source is named next to it. Admission and target figures come from the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan and its supplementary information published by IRCC. Express Entry round sizes, cut-offs and the pool distribution come from IRCC's published rounds of invitations data, read on 4 September 2026. Legislative status comes from Parliament of Canada records and the canada.ca notices issued when each bill came into force. Wage thresholds and low-wage rules come from ESDC. Alberta's allocation and stream breakdown come from alberta.ca, read in August 2026.

Where a claim is political rather than documentary, it is attributed to whoever made it. The Prime Minister's remark that the government had taken back control of immigration was reported by CTV News in July 2026 and is presented here as a reported statement, not as a finding. The opposition's characterisation of the same record is likewise a claim, not a fact, and we adopt neither framing. Nothing here forecasts what the government will do next, because that is not something a licensed practitioner can responsibly do.

This page is reviewed on a fixed schedule and after every significant announcement. The next scheduled revision points are the 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan, due to be tabled by 1 November 2026 under section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, and the annual Express Entry category announcement, which has landed in February in each of the last two years.

Compliance note. Wild Mountain Immigration is a licensed RCIC practice based in Canmore, Alberta (CICC R706497), working online across Canada. This page is general information about public policy, not advice on your file and not a prediction of any outcome. We do not advise on Quebec programmes and we do not represent clients before the Immigration and Refugee Board or the courts. The first call is free for spousal and partner sponsorship enquiries; every other consultation is a paid appointment.